NFL consensus rankings

How the rating is built. Every team gets a rating in points better than an average NFL team on a neutral field, from each of three pillars, and the composite is their weighted sum. Results is what actually happened, in three parts. A luck-adjusted margin: half the scoreboard, half what the yardage says the margin should have been, so a team that doubled its opponent’s yards and lost on fumbles is docked about half of what the score says, while a team that was out-gained and still lost takes the full hit. Margins are capped at 21 points and solved across the whole schedule so that beating good teams counts for more than beating bad ones. A win rating, so a win counts beyond its margin. And performance against the spread: how far above or below the closing line’s expectation each game landed, which already prices the opponent and the site. Blended 45 / 30 / 25. Betting markets is what money says: a rating fit to the last three weeks of point spreads, blended with the futures boards. Analytics models is what the models say: every live model, placed on the same points scale by its position against the market. Full-season weights are results 40%, markets 35%, models 25%; results phase in over the first 5 weeks because a September record predicts almost nothing, and a pillar with nothing to say this week hands its share to the others. Results carry 32% this week and reach 40% after week 5. There are no media rankings and no human polls in the score. Voters anchor on where a team started the season, reward reputation, and see a fraction of the games they rank; the three pillars here are each accountable to something real, a score, a price, or a measurement. Results vs market is the results rank minus the market rank: a large positive number is a team whose record the market does not yet believe, a large negative one is a favourite that keeps losing. A source is excluded from scoring, and shown struck through, when its data is more than 30 days old or when it describes an earlier week than the one this board is built on.